AEW's North America Research team are pleased to present the Q4 2024 U.S. Research Perspective.
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For over 40 years, AEW has led the way in creating and executing real estate investment strategies on behalf of the world's foremost institutional investors. Put our experience to work for you.
Investment StrategiesAEW is one of the largest real estate investment managers in the world. Today, we have over 800 clients globally with $82.0/€79.1 billion in assets under management across all property types in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. With over 860 employees in 19 offices across the globe, AEW has on-the-ground expertise where and when you need it.
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One of the largest real estate investment managers is sourced by “2024 IREI.Q Real Estate Managers Guide”. The Guide, published annually by Institutional Real Estate, Inc., ranks real estate managers based on the gross value of real estate AUM ($m) as of December 31, 2023.
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AEW's mission is to be its clients' most trusted and effective advisor. We take our fiduciary responsibility seriously, and manage assets with discipline and attention to risk management. We provide access to the real estate asset class through a broad platform of separately managed accounts and open- and closed-end funds.
For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee the strategies will achieve their risk or return objectives.
AEW Research has a team of dedicated economists in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific providing fundamental support to our investment professionals around the globe. Our research based approach is integrated at every level of the investment decision-making process.
AEW's North America Research team are pleased to present the Q4 2024 U.S. Research Perspective.
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AEW's Asia Pacific Research team are pleased to present the Q4 2024 U.S. Research Perspective.
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The Long-Awaited Renaissance of European Retail Despite ongoing uncertainty, real retail sales in the Eurozone are projected to grow modestly at 1.7% p.a., outpacing both 1.4% p.a. real GDP and 1.0% p.a. real disposable income growth over the 2025-29 period. In-store retail sales in Europe are expected to stabilize with an annual growth rate of around 0.6% p.a. over the next five years. This forecast reflects the projected proportion of e-commerce within total retail sales to 20% by 2029, up from 16% in 2024. Prime retail vacancy as reported by INREV has stabilized at 3% in Q3 2024, down from 4% in 2020. However, shopping center vacancy has risen to 6.5% as of Q3 2024. Vacancy for retail warehouses and high street have declined over the past 2-3 years. After double digit declines in 2019-22, European prime rents for both shopping centres and high street retail are expected to return to 1.3% annual growth in 2025-29. At 2.4% and 2.0% p.a., French prime retail rents are projected to lead the way. Manager sentiment towards retail experienced the largest quarterly improvement in Q4 2024, following a prolonged slump in 2015-21. German and French retail sentiment is expected to follow the UK upward lead, similar to post-2015 downward trend. Retail investment volumes in 2024 have risen to EUR 25.4bn, reflecting an 11% increase from the weak performance in 2023. This growth was primarily driven by shopping centre transactions, which experienced a 27% increase during the period. According to our Sep-2024 forecast, core European shopping centre and high street yields are expected to tighten by 40 and 30 basis points by 2029, respectively, from their 2024 peak levels of 6.7% for shopping centres and 5.2% for high street retail. European prime retail total returns are anticipated to average 8.2% p.a. in 2025-29, with shopping centres at 8.9% p.a., and high street retail at 7.4% p.a. Shopping centre returns are projected to surpass those of high street retail in most countries. Retail is projected to offer a higher current income yield of 6.4% and 5.1% in shopping centres and high street compared to the 5.0% average across non-retail sectors, even if total returns trails non-retail sectors. Finally, if future property yield tightening becomes less certain -- as government bond yields are now expected to stay higher for longer -- more investors might be interested in the relative safety of European retails’ high current income returns.
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